Intelligent Design Network’s Blog on Truth

One Response to “Darwinism: Not a Chance, So Don’t Bet Your Life”

1. John Calvert Says:
   August 4th, 2008 at 5:08 pm

   Not a Chance, is a good article. But I believe something more can be said about why reliance on chance is mathematically unreasonable.

   First, the sequence of the four genetic symbols (ACTG) which specify the function of a gene is not dictated by chemistry. The symbols bind to the sugar phosphate back bone of DNA, but do not bind to each other. Hence the sequences that comprise the messages of life are physically and chemically independent. The function is dependent on the sequence, but the sequence is not dependent on chemistry.

   The fact that chemistry does not dictate the sequence leaves the sequence to be explained by mind or chance - random interactions of matter, energy and the forces which alter the sequence through additions, deletions and substitutions.

   Chance is not a reasonable explanation because the probability of a correct sequence decreases exponentially as the length of the sequence increases only incrementally. For example the probability of getting a gene consisting of only one codon of three correct bases is 1/4×1/4×1/4 or 1/64. Typically a gene will code for 100 or more amino acids, necessitating a specific sequence of 300 or more bases. 1/4 300 times is 4^300. 4^300 is about 10^181. This means that there are 10^181 possible ways a 300 symbol gene could be sequenced. If every elemental particle in the universe (10^80) was a monkey “typing” random gene sequences 300 symbols long at the rate of 10^45 trials per second since the big bang 10^17 seconds ago, the most outcomes they could produce is 10^142. The monkeys would be short by 10^39 of probabilistic resources needed to make the needed outcome probable. This is just for one small gene, which itself is functionless until integrated with hundreds, sometimes thousands of other genes.

   The achillies heel of any chance explanation is the exponential decrease that results from serial multiplication of each additional increment of complexity. Within finite realms chance can only explain patterns of very low complexity.

   The rate of exponential decrease in probability can be easily seen with a simple calculator. Enter the numeral 4, hit the times sign and then press the equals sign repeatedly. Each press of the equals key represents one increment of additional complexity to the sequence. The number that appears in the window of the calculator represents the number of trials or opportunities need to achieve a probability of one. See how that number escalates with just a few presses of the equals key. Before long you will have exhausted all available resources to reasonably explain any functional sequence by chance.

   John Calvert

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